It’s a stat people love to quote to scare collectors: The Pokémon Company prints over 10 billion cards every year.
Since 2020, the supply of Pokémon cards has been growing exponentially. Before, Pokémon would print one, maybe two billion cards annually. From there, production shot up, and for the last five years, a staggering 10-12 billion new pieces of cardboard hit the market per annum.
The total produced now stands at around 90 billion cards, which makes for perfect Youtuber clickbait: “The supply grows by more than 10% each year! What if the demand soon no longer keeps up? Your cards might plummet in value!”
I used to be susceptible to this argument. It sure feels like supply is growing fast in the last few years. But then, I thought about it. The number one way Pokémon releases cards to the market is in booster packs, which come with 10 cards each. Only one of the cards in each pack is a rare. The rest is what we call “bulk,” with most common cards costing a cent or less.
That means the supply of interesting cards hitting the market is actually only 10% of what’s printed! Once you factor in the different rarities and that even most holos, ultra rares, and so on are plentiful and cheaply available on the market, the number is likely reduced by another 90%, half at minimum. So, in reality, Pokémon prints somewhere from 100 to 500 million cards each year which people actually want.
Phew. That’s already a lot less scary! There won’t be millions of Umbreon VMAXs from Evolving Skies popping up any time soon. But what about the demand?
Well, first of all, it’s the main reason Pokémon has ramped up printing so much to begin with! They weren’t trying to flood the market before. They simply reacted to how many cards people bought. And, for the last two years, demand has been skyrocketing, with Pokémon unable to print enough of any new set to even keep prices at MSRP for any of their products. Someday, they might overshoot the target again, as they did in 2021, after which the market cooled off for a while. But for now, the increased level of printing is a symptom, not the disease.
In the US alone, around 30 million people collect trading cards actively, with tens of millions more casually participating. Globally, we could easily be looking at several hundred million collectors. But wait! If 100 to 500 million people want more rare Pokémon cards, and Pokémon prints 100 to 500 million of those per year, that’s…one card per person. Yup. That’s it. And if you were to look only at cards costing 100 euros or more, the balance would tilt even more. If you’re conservative, you can assume it’s 10, even 20 rare cards which hit the market per collector each year. Still, you will quickly realize: It doesn’t matter. What serious collector only buys 10 cards per year? There’ll never be enough of the cards everyone wants—and that’s part of the point of this hobby!
Numbers fascinate us. They’re a great way to tell stories. But it’s easy to focus on the wrong statistic. Don’t believe every metric someone quotes in your face. Do your own research, dig deeper, and, as you would for any Pokémon card deal or purchase in your life, make sure the calculation adds up.
