In 2012, a new lottery launched across EU states: the Eurojackpot. It was much more attractive than the German national lottery. For one, the jackpot could reach almost twice as high, up to 90 million euros. At the same time, the odds were almost 60% better. Instead of a 1 in 140 million chance of winning, you now had a 1 in 60 million shot at the big prize. Still unlikely—it’s the lottery, after all—but hey, we’ll take it!
Unfortunately, the lottery design changed over time. Eventually, the odds were decreased, first to 1 in 90 million, then again to 1 in 140 million, just like the national lottery. The jackpot was still bigger—you could now win up to 120 million euros—but the increased odds were what made it more fun. Bummer! Or was it?
A friend of mine is a sports betting guy. He’s good at poker, picking stocks, and anything where you need to calculate the odds. While I’m no longer sure he was the one who originally showed me the Eurojackpot, he did point me to one unique feature of it that remained even after all the changes: the forced disbursement of excess funds. Once the jackpot hits its cap of 120 million euros, as long as no one wins it, all extra earnings from future rounds are passed down into the second tier—which has, yet again, much better odds. Around 1 in 7 million. That’s a 20x higher chance! And with sums ranging from, say, five to 25 million in that category, it’s still plenty to retire.
My friend being my friend, he developed a system: He’d only play if the winnings in category two were attractive. Sometimes, he asks me to join him. We double our tickets and split any substantial winnings. Of course, there were none of those so far, but that’s not the point. “As any good better knows,” my friend once said, “a good bet is a good bet. You take it because the odds are right, not because a win is guaranteed—which it never is.”
It takes a lot of smarts to identify good bets, but it takes ten times more emotional endurance to still remember them as good bets even after they don’t pan out. Taking the same good bet over and over again is how strategic players win. But to put your money down for the eleventh time after the same bet has failed on the last ten occasions? That’s hard.
Keep making good bets. Even playing the lottery can be a good idea—as long as the odds are ever so slightly in your favor.
