Several hundred people started college together with me. Same date, same degree, same classes for the first three semesters. Many of us were alike. Others were outliers.
There were people whose parents were professors and people who were the first academics in their families. Some had had jobs before and were a bit older. Others enrolled fresh out of high school. We had child prodigies, slow learners, early finishers, and dropouts.
One case struck me twice, first back then, and again more recently. I didn’t know this guy well, but he was bright, chirpy, and always on the move. I never saw him much in class nor at the library.
Eventually, I learned he was a PowerSeller on Ebay on the side. He ended up living in my building, and I could see his apartment across the inner yard. His place was always crammed with all kinds of items. Boxes, apparel, fitness bikes, you name it. “Ahh, so that’s why!” I said when a friend told me about his entrepreneurial pursuits.
At some point, however, he specialized in goods from Japan. Manga, anime, little souvenirs and gadgets—whatever related to Japanese culture, he would import it and sell it in Germany. And apparently, this business was so successful, he one day quit school. It was reported to me he had dropped out and driven off in his Porsche convertible, and since I never saw him again after our third semester, that story checked out for me.
Clearly, this guy was one of the outliers. Put a few hundred people into the same classroom, and some will make it big.
A few days ago, the friend who originally told me about this guy’s online success once again came to me with the latest gossip. “Remember him?” “Sure,” I said. “Well, then you might want to sit down.” My friend shared several podcasts and a 20-minute segment from one of Germany’s public TV channels—all true crime shows. “This dude just got nine years in prison for sexually abusing minors.” I had to, indeed, sit down.
I don’t think I closed my mouth once while watching the TV report. Grooming 12-year-old boys in online chatrooms, luring them away from home, forcing them to commit sexual acts. It was all the same stuff you occasionally hear on the news—except this was someone I knew, if only vaguely. I barely knew this person, and yet, it all felt so visceral. Just as I had taken real note of his success, so I now felt his downfall.
Clearly, this guy was an outlier among outliers. Put a few hundred people into the same classroom, and some will become criminals.
It could have easily been two different people. But it was him who first flew high, then stooped to depths no one should reach. Perhaps that’s why his story hit extra hard.
We don’t usually pay much attention to statistics. One in two people will get cancer. Around half of all marriages end in divorce. Sure, but not us, right? This is the correct approach, I believe. Why live in fear of numbers? At the same time, someone will be the statistic, however fortunate or horrific its prophecy.
Let us remember the data when it can help ground us but not give it permission to lead us astray.